The Hispanic Vote this Election Shocked Many, but Not Us

The outcome of the Election was decisive and in unprecedented fashion, breaking down conventional wisdom and traditional party coalitions to unearth the new realities of what really drives voter decisions in America today.

Lee aquí la versión en español

In regards to the Hispanic vote, there was no shortage of reporting around its power in the ramp up to November 5th. Yet, when President-Elect Trump’s win was underpinned by a tremendous 25% gain with Hispanic voters, many were left wondering how this seismic shift occurred.

Well, not us. The trove of data we at TelevisaUnivision produced before the Election painted what ultimately was an accurate picture of the Hispanic electorate.

As of early Fall, our survey of 35,000 registered Hispanic voters showed that an astounding 65% of Hispanic voters considered themselves persuadable on who to support in the Election, validating a critical point that party loyalty was not a fundamental determining factor as it may have been in past Elections. Less than 25% identified as Democrats and only 12% identified as Republican.

In fact, the vast majority of Hispanic respondents planned to vote on the issues that mattered to them directly, as opposed to their cultural pride or party. Like all Americans, they were split on issues ranging from the economy, reproductive rights, immigration and crime.

In the weeks leading up to the Election, I spoke to the senior leadership of various campaigns to share our insights. We had a very simple recommendation: Hispanics care about the issues, and they want to feel and be engaged and informed in their own language.

Some campaigns ignored our recommendations, assuming they could reach Hispanic audiences in mainstream digital and social platforms. Winning campaigns did not. Winning campaigns listened to our expertise, because as the leading media company serving Hispanics we understand our community deeply, and know the importance of connecting with them in the places they trust, with the language of their heart. Time and again, Spanish dominant and bilingual voters express strong preference to those candidates who engaged them in Spanish-language.

Mr. Trump leaned into consistency, appearing on Univision a year ago – our highest rated interview of this political season – and continually made efforts to increase his appeal to Hispanic voters through ongoing engagement across platforms with issues-focused advertising, radio interviews and participation in our Presidential Town Hall. His campaign leveraged the hyper-accurate data we offer advertisers, ensuring messaging reaches the largest Hispanic audience effectively.

In Arizona, Democratic Senator-Elect Ruben Gallego made a concerted appearance across Spanish-language media as a core strategy and was able to win despite Mr. Trump winning the state. Senator Ted Cruz prioritized Univision through advertising and engaging with our news division and won easily in Hispanic areas of Texas.

The former president won with Hispanic men by 10% and narrowed the gap with Vice President Harris to 8% among all Hispanic voters, a major slide from the 23% margin President Biden achieved in 2020.

The importance of connecting in Spanish cannot be overstated. Mr. Trump was the first Republican candidate to appear on Univision in over 12 years. For the past several elections, less than 2% of political advertising has been spent communicating with Spanish-language voters in Spanish, and the campaigns that increased their marketing strategies saw a dramatic impact.

This was the year the Hispanic electorate established itself as a force, with a trajectory that will only accelerate as this community remains the fastest-growing segment in the U.S. Those who continue to underestimate the power of Hispanic Americans will only do so at their peril.